The issue of drought security is of paramount importance for cities located in regions subject to severe prolonged droughts. The prospect of “running out of water” for an extended period would threaten the very existence of the city. Managing drought security for an urban water supply is a complex task involving trade-offs between conflicting objectives. In this paper a multiobjective optimization approach for urban water resource planning and operation is developed to overcome practically significant shortcomings identified in previous work. A case study based on the headworks system for Sydney (Australia) demonstrates the approach and highlights the potentially serious shortcomings of Pareto optimal solutions conditioned on short climate records, incomplete decision spaces, and constraints to which system response is sensitive. Where high levels of drought security are required, optimal solutions conditioned on short climate records are flawed. Our approach addresses drought security explicitly by identifying approximate optimal solutions in which the system does not “run dry” in severe droughts with expected return periods up to a nominated (typically large) value. In addition, it is shown that failure to optimize the full mix of interacting operational and infrastructure decisions and to explore the trade-offs associated with sensitive constraints can lead to significantly more costly solutions.
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